In 2022 Mongolians protested what became known as the coal-theft case. Several figures were put forward for how much coal left the country unrecorded. This page sets each claim beside what the two countries' customs data can show.
Comparing Mongolian and Chinese customs export and import data for 2008–2022 shows a difference of 6.9 million tonnes.
Who
Temporary Committee of the State Great Khural on coal smuggling, chaired by MP G. Ganbold · 27 June 2023 · News.MN
Method
Mirror comparison using CEIC and sxcoal data for China and Mongolian customs data. Year-by-year figures were not published.
What the customs data shows
Over 2008–2022, China recorded 1.45 Mt more coal than Mongolia in the years that can be compared (93.3% of years). Adding up each year's difference regardless of direction gives 10.9 Mt.
Larger than the customs gap3.20 Mt
Within the committee's inspection period, 2018–2022, the difference between the two countries' customs data was 3.2 million tonnes.
Who
Temporary Committee of the State Great Khural on coal smuggling, chaired by MP G. Ganbold · 27 June 2023 · News.MN
Method
Same comparison as the 6.9 Mt figure. Customs was then asked to verify it and checked 381 sales contracts covering 121.6 Mt.
What the customs data shows
Over 2018–2022, China recorded 1.43 Mt more coal than Mongolia in the years that can be compared (100% of years). Adding up each year's difference regardless of direction gives 4.86 Mt.
Larger than the customs gap6.40 Mt
Over the past ten years, 6.4 million tonnes of coal were stolen: recorded in China but not in Mongolian customs data.
Who
T. Dorjkhand, Member of Parliament · 17 November 2022 · iKon.mn
Method
Method not published. The ten-year period is mapped here to 2013–2022.
What the customs data shows
Over 2013–2022, China recorded 2.01 Mt more coal than Mongolia in the years that can be compared (90% of years). Adding up each year's difference regardless of direction gives 7.61 Mt.
Cannot be tested with customs data430 kt
When the two governments reconciled their figures in 2013, 430,000 tonnes of coal were found missing.
Who
Joint Mongolia–China government working group of 2013, as reported by MP T. Dorjkhand · 17 November 2022 · iKon.mn
Method
The period the working group examined is not stated in the source, so it cannot be matched to customs data here.
What the customs data shows
No period is given, so the claim cannot be matched to the data.
Larger than the customs gap3.40 Mt
In 2013–2017 the border agency counted 849,000 trucks leaving and customs counted 815,000. If the extra 34,000 trucks carried 100 tonnes each, 3.4 million tonnes left unrecorded.
Who
News.MN analysis of border-agency and customs truck counts · 2 January 2023 · News.MN
Method
Truck counts from two Mongolian agencies, not customs-to-customs trade data. The mirror comparison can only test whether China recorded more coal than Mongolia in the same years.
What the customs data shows
Over 2013–2017, China recorded 576 kt more coal than Mongolia in the years that can be compared (80% of years). Adding up each year's difference regardless of direction gives 2.75 Mt.
Smaller than the customs gap300 kt
Around 300,000 tonnes of coal were likely imported into China without customs registration between 2013 and 2019. The 6.4 Mt figure is false.
Government estimate; method not published. Reported by the U4 Anti-Corruption Resource Centre.
What the customs data shows
Over 2013–2019, China recorded 1.22 Mt more coal than Mongolia in the years that can be compared (85.7% of years). Adding up each year's difference regardless of direction gives 3.40 Mt.
Cannot be tested with customs data₮40–45 trillion
The losses from coal theft amount to 40 to 45 trillion tögrög.
A revenue-loss estimate, which customs tonnage data cannot test.
What the customs data shows
No period is given, so the claim cannot be matched to the data.
Timeline
Investigation
Joint working group reconciles coal figures
A Mongolia–China government working group compares the two countries' figures and finds 430,000 tonnes missing. The case is later dropped. Source · Claim
Claim
Former MP warns of coal missing from customs declarations
L. Enkhbold, a former MP for Ömnögovi province, warns that millions of tonnes of coal are missing from customs declarations. Source
Event
Government says coal crossed the border without customs registration
The government says coal from state miner Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi was exported to China without proper customs registration, with officials allegedly involved. Source
Claim
MP alleges 6.4 million tonnes stolen over ten years
MP T. Dorjkhand says 6.4 million tonnes of coal registered in China were absent from Mongolian customs data over ten years. Source · Claim
Event
Protests begin on Sükhbaatar Square
Thousands protest in sub-zero weather in front of parliament for about three weeks, demanding prosecution of those responsible. Source
Investigation
Prosecutors form a joint task force
The Prosecutor General's Office forms a joint task force of the Independent Authority Against Corruption, the police and the General Intelligence Agency. Source
Claim
Loss claim of 40 trillion tögrög
MP T. Dorjkhand and economist D. Gantulga present a breakdown putting losses at 40 to 45 trillion tögrög. Source · Claim
Policy
Government plans to list Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi
Following the protests, the government says it will take the state coal miner public and disclose details of the trucks that carried its coal. Source
Investigation
Parliamentary public hearing
Parliament holds a public hearing on the coal theft case. Source
Claim
Truck counts imply 3.4 million tonnes unrecorded in 2013–2017
News.MN compares border-agency and customs truck counts: 34,000 more trucks left than customs recorded. Source · Claim
Investigation
128 people charged
Investigators report 50 cases under investigation and 128 people charged. Source
Claim
Parliamentary committee reports a 6.9 million tonne customs gap
The temporary committee reports a 6.9 Mt difference between the two countries' customs data for 2008–2022, including 3.2 Mt in 2018–2022. Source · Claim